feat: prediction fraud signals, dispute SLA timers, referral tracking…

[Immex171]

Summary

Implements four independent tasks:

[Backend] Prediction Pattern Fraud Signals

Closes #1389

• Computes per-user timing-clustering and counterparty-concentration signals over prediction behavior.
• Flags accounts exceeding configurable thresholds (env-configurable) as advisory PredictionFraudFlag records — never auto-enforced.
• Exposes flags to admins via GET /admin/predictions/fraud-flags (filterable by status/signal_type/user).
• Files: backend/src/predictions/predictions.service.ts, backend/src/predictions/entities/prediction-fraud-flag.entity.ts, backend/src/admin/admin.service.ts, backend/src/admin/admin.controller.ts.

[Backend] Dispute SLA Timers and Escalation

Closes #1394

• Each dispute now tracks an SLA deadline per stage (initial_review → escalated).
• An hourly scheduler (DisputesService.runSlaCheck) detects approaching/breached SLAs, notifies the assigned arbiter and all admins, and escalates breached disputes into a second SLA window per configurable policy.
• New PATCH /admin/disputes/:id/assign-arbiter endpoint to assign an admin/moderator as the dispute's arbiter.
• Files: backend/src/disputes/disputes.service.ts, backend/src/disputes/entities/dispute.entity.ts, backend/src/notifications/notification-generator.service.ts.

[Backend] Referral Tracking API

Closes #1390

• Records referrer→referred relationships via POST /users/me/referrals/claim (a user's own ID doubles as their shareable referral code).
• Rejects self-referral and duplicate attribution (unique constraint on the referred side).
• GET /users/me/referrals reports counts and per-referral status.
• A referred user's first prediction submission advances their referral from pending to qualified.
• Files: backend/src/users/users.service.ts, backend/src/users/users.controller.ts, backend/src/users/entities/user-referral.entity.ts, backend/src/users/dto/referral.dto.ts.

[Contract] Weighted Arbiter Quorum Voting with Slashing

Closes #1359

• Admins assign a panel of arbiters to a pending dispute (assign_arbiters); each arbiter's voting weight (staked bond × reputation multiplier) is snapshotted at assignment, immune to later stake/reputation changes.
• finalize_arbiter_vote requires assigned weight meeting a configurable quorum (Config::arbiter_quorum_bps) and the voting deadline to have passed.
• Non-voting arbiters are slashed by Config::arbiter_slash_bps; the slashed amount is redistributed to voters exactly (verified in tests).
• Ties resolve to reject, preserving the original market resolution as the safe default.
• get_arbiter_tally exposes a read-only tally, quorum progress, and per-arbiter participation.
• Files: contracts/open-market/src/dispute.rs, contracts/open-market/src/storage_types.rs, contracts/open-market/src/config.rs.
• Note: both DataKey and InsightArenaError are already at their 50-variant XDR cap, so this reuses the existing raw-tuple-key pattern (see reputation::trusted_creator_key) for arbiter stake storage, and documents each reused error variant inline.

Test plan

• cd backend && npm test — unit tests added/updated in predictions.service.spec.ts, disputes.service.spec.ts, users.service.spec.ts, admin.service.spec.ts.
• cd contracts/open-market && cargo test — new tests/arbiter_vote_tests.rs covers staking, weight snapshotting, quorum gating, tie resolution, and exact slash/redistribution accounting.
• Run new migrations against a local Postgres instance.
• Manually exercise POST /users/me/referrals/claim and GET /admin/predictions/fraud-flags against a running backend.

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Project	Deployment	Actions	Updated (UTC)
insight-arena-4rll	Ready	Preview, Comment	Jul 26, 2026 9:31pm

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