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UK AI-exposure analysis stack: exposure crosswalk, occupation targets, exposure imputation, and ESRI-style AI shock scenarios #325

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UK AI-exposure analysis stack: exposure crosswalk, occupation targets, exposure imputation, and ESRI-style AI shock scenarios #325

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05e9c95
Add UK occupation and age employment calibration targets from ONS ASH…
vahid-ahmadi Jul 6, 2026
277d011
Add ESRI-style AI adoption shock scenarios for UK person microdata
vahid-ahmadi Jul 6, 2026
2c97cfe
Add UK AI-exposure imputation stage (LFS/APS donor -> FRS persons)
vahid-ahmadi Jul 6, 2026
04490bc
Add UK SOC2020 AI-exposure crosswalk and lookup module
vahid-ahmadi Jul 6, 2026
5ae6d68
Merge branch 'feature/ai-exposure-crosswalk' into feature/uk-ai-expos…
vahid-ahmadi Jul 6, 2026
78d1bc3
Merge branch 'feature/uk-occupation-calibration-targets' into feature…
vahid-ahmadi Jul 6, 2026
96393b5
Merge branch 'feature/occupation-exposure-imputation' into feature/uk…
vahid-ahmadi Jul 6, 2026
c934156
Merge branch 'feature/ai-shock-scenarios' into feature/uk-ai-exposure…
vahid-ahmadi Jul 6, 2026
6ec6461
Move occupation-target tidy CSVs out of the spec-only uk country package
vahid-ahmadi Jul 6, 2026
3b72a3e
Address review: citations, age-band reconciliation, seam/vintage fixe…
vahid-ahmadi Jul 10, 2026
27c6ae3
Merge origin/main into feature/uk-ai-exposure-analysis (resolve uk_ru…
vahid-ahmadi Jul 10, 2026
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190 changes: 165 additions & 25 deletions packages/populace-build/src/populace/build/uk_runtime/__init__.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,5 +1,59 @@
"""UK build helpers for Populace-owned local-geography artifacts."""

from populace.build.uk_runtime.ai_exposure import (
MEASURE_TO_COLUMN,
exposure_for_major_group,
exposure_for_soc,
load_ai_exposure_table,
load_major_group_ai_exposure_table,
)
from populace.build.uk_runtime.ai_exposure_sources import (
build_ai_exposure_table,
build_complementarity_theta,
build_dsit_soc2010_to_soc2020,
build_major_group_ai_exposure,
build_us_measure_chain,
)
from populace.build.uk_runtime.ai_shock_runner import (
GRID_CAPITAL_RETURN_INCREASE,
GRID_DISPLACEMENT_RATES,
GRID_WAGE_UPLIFTS,
AgeBandDelta,
DecileDelta,
PopulationMetrics,
ScenarioResult,
age_band_deltas,
build_scenario_grid,
decile_deltas,
gini,
run_ai_shock_analysis,
run_grid,
write_grid_csv,
write_grid_json,
)
from populace.build.uk_runtime.ai_shock_scenarios import (
KLEIN_TEESELINK_YOUTH_MULTIPLIER,
ShockScenario,
apply_capital_shock,
apply_employment_shock,
apply_wage_shock,
run_scenario,
)
from populace.build.uk_runtime.ai_shock_scenarios import (
PRESETS as AI_SHOCK_PRESETS,
)
from populace.build.uk_runtime.exposure_imputation import (
DEFAULT_EXPOSURE_COLUMN,
DEFAULT_PREDICTORS,
LFS_APS_EXPOSURE_DONOR,
SOC_MAJOR_GROUP_COLUMN,
UK_EXPOSURE_IMPUTATION_STAGE_NAME,
attach_exposure,
exposure_from_major_group,
exposure_imputation_stage,
fit_exposure_imputer,
impute_exposure,
)
from populace.build.uk_runtime.firm_generation import (
EMPLOYMENT_BANDS,
HMRC_BAND_COLUMNS,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -32,6 +86,17 @@
validate_uk_firm_population,
write_uk_firm_population,
)
from populace.build.uk_runtime.frs_occupation import (
FRS_ADULT_KEY_COLUMNS,
FRS_ADULT_SOC_COLUMN,
FRS_OCCUPATION_DONOR,
UK_FRS_OCCUPATION_STAGE_NAME,
attach_soc_major_group,
frs_major_group_to_digit,
frs_occupation_stage,
load_frs_adult_table,
soc_major_group_for_persons,
)
from populace.build.uk_runtime.geography_ladder import (
GEOGRAPHY_LADDER_ARTIFACT_SHA256_ATTR,
GEOGRAPHY_LADDER_VINTAGES_ATTR,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -141,6 +206,19 @@
assemble_uk_oa_ladder,
join_uk_oa_ladder_layers,
)
from populace.build.uk_runtime.occupation_targets import (
APS_NOMIS_SOURCE,
ASHE_TABLE14_SOURCE,
PACKAGED_APS_AGE_CSV,
PACKAGED_APS_OCCUPATION_CSV,
PACKAGED_ASHE_TABLE14_CSV,
OccupationTargetBuild,
SkippedTargetRow,
aps_age_band_employment_targets,
aps_occupation_employment_targets,
ashe_occupation_employment_targets,
packaged_occupation_csv_path,
)
from populace.build.uk_runtime.rowwise_dataset import (
BENUNIT_ID_COLUMNS,
HOUSEHOLD_ID_COLUMNS,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -186,15 +264,22 @@

__all__ = [
"AGE_BANDS",
"AREA_TYPE_TO_LEDGER_GEOGRAPHY_LEVEL",
"AI_SHOCK_PRESETS",
"APS_NOMIS_SOURCE",
"AREA_TYPES",
"AREA_TYPE_TO_CROSSWALK_COLUMN",
"AREA_TYPE_TO_LEDGER_GEOGRAPHY_LEVEL",
"ASHE_TABLE14_SOURCE",
"AgeBandDelta",
"AxiomVATRuleEvaluator",
"BASE_FRS_SUPPORT_CHANNEL",
"BENUNIT_ID_COLUMNS",
"COUNTRY_TO_REGION",
"CROSSWALK_COLUMNS",
"DEFAULT_EXPOSURE_COLUMN",
"DEFAULT_PREDICTORS",
"DEFAULT_SPI_SUPPORT_HOUSEHOLDS",
"DecileDelta",
"EMPLOYMENT_BANDS",
"ENGLAND_LAD_REGION_URL",
"ENGLAND_WALES_OA2021_COUNT",
Expand All @@ -204,47 +289,56 @@
"EW_OA_LAD23_URL",
"EW_OA_POPULATION_URL",
"EW_OA_WARD_URL",
"GEOGRAPHY_LADDER_ARTIFACT_SHA256_ATTR",
"GEOGRAPHY_LADDER_VINTAGES_ATTR",
"FRS_REGION_TO_COUNTRY",
"FRS_REGION_TO_REGION_CODE",
"FRS_ADULT_KEY_COLUMNS",
"FRS_ADULT_SOC_COLUMN",
"FRS_OCCUPATION_DONOR",
"FRS_ONLY_SPI_FILL_PERSON_COLUMNS",
"FRS_ONLY_SPI_FILL_PREDICTOR_COLUMNS",
"HOUSEHOLD_IS_SPI_SYNTHETIC_COLUMN",
"HOUSEHOLD_ID_COLUMNS",
"FRS_REGION_TO_COUNTRY",
"FRS_REGION_TO_REGION_CODE",
"GEOGRAPHY_LADDER_ARTIFACT_SHA256_ATTR",
"GEOGRAPHY_LADDER_VINTAGES_ATTR",
"GRID_CAPITAL_RETURN_INCREASE",
"GRID_DISPLACEMENT_RATES",
"GRID_WAGE_UPLIFTS",
"HMRC_BAND_COLUMNS",
"INPUT_FILES",
"HOUSEHOLD_ID_COLUMNS",
"HOUSEHOLD_IS_SPI_SYNTHETIC_COLUMN",
"INCOME_VARIABLES",
"LA_EXTRA_METRICS",
"LADDER_OA_COLUMNS",
"INPUT_FILES",
"KLEIN_TEESELINK_YOUTH_MULTIPLIER",
"LAD23_ITL_URL",
"LADDER_OA_COLUMNS",
"LA_EXTRA_METRICS",
"LFS_APS_EXPOSURE_DONOR",
"LONG_GEOGRAPHY_COLUMNS",
"MAX_UNMATCHED_ACTIVE_NI_POSTCODE_SHARE",
"MEASURE_TO_COLUMN",
"NI_DZ2021_COUNT",
"NI_DZ_GEOJSON_ZIP_URL",
"NI_DZ_POPULATION_CSV_URL",
"OccupationTargetBuild",
"PACKAGED_APS_AGE_CSV",
"PACKAGED_APS_OCCUPATION_CSV",
"PACKAGED_ASHE_TABLE14_CSV",
"PERSON_ID_COLUMNS",
"PopulationMetrics",
"ROWWISE_GEOGRAPHY_COLUMNS",
"RowwiseGeographyAssignment",
"SCOTLAND_OA2022_COUNT",
"SCOTLAND_OA_CONSTITUENCY_URL",
"SCOTLAND_OA_DZ_IZ_URL",
"SCOTLAND_OA_LAU_ITL_URL",
"SCOTLAND_OA_POPULATION_URL",
"SOC_MAJOR_GROUP_COLUMN",
"SPI_INCOME_COMPONENT_COLUMNS",
"SPI_INCOME_IMPUTATION_COLUMNS",
"SPI_SYNTHETIC_SUPPORT_CHANNEL",
"ScenarioResult",
"ShockScenario",
"SkippedTargetRow",
"StackedLocalMatrix",
"StackedLocalSolveResult",
"UK_ENGLAND_WALES_REGION_CODES",
"UK_GEOGRAPHY_LADDER_COLUMNS",
"UK_LONDON_REGION_CODE",
"UK_OA_LADDER_DERIVED_LAYERS",
"UK_OA_LADDER_KIND",
"UK_OA_LADDER_SCHEMA_VERSION",
"UK_POSTCODE_OA_MAY25_ZIP_URL",
"UK_POSTCODE_PCON_MAY24_ZIP_URL",
"UkOaLadder",
"UKFirmCalibrationResult",
"UKFirmGenerationConfig",
"UKFirmGenerationResult",
Expand All @@ -255,74 +349,118 @@
"UKLocalCandidateResult",
"UKRowwiseDatasetResult",
"UKSPISupportResult",
"UK_ENGLAND_WALES_REGION_CODES",
"UK_EXPOSURE_IMPUTATION_STAGE_NAME",
"UK_FRS_OCCUPATION_STAGE_NAME",
"UK_GEOGRAPHY_LADDER_COLUMNS",
"UK_LONDON_REGION_CODE",
"UK_OA_LADDER_DERIVED_LAYERS",
"UK_OA_LADDER_KIND",
"UK_OA_LADDER_SCHEMA_VERSION",
"UK_POSTCODE_OA_MAY25_ZIP_URL",
"UK_POSTCODE_PCON_MAY24_ZIP_URL",
"UK_SINGLE_YEAR_TABLES",
"UK_SPI_SUPPORT_STAGE_NAME",
"UkOaLadder",
"VAT_LIABILITY_BANDS",
"VINTAGES",
"age_band_deltas",
"align_area_targets",
"area_support_summary",
"apply_capital_shock",
"apply_employment_shock",
"apply_wage_shock",
"aps_age_band_employment_targets",
"aps_occupation_employment_targets",
"area_groups_from_codes",
"area_support_summary",
"ashe_occupation_employment_targets",
"assemble_uk_oa_ladder",
"assign_employment",
"assign_household_geography",
"assign_uk_geography_ladder",
"assign_vat_flags",
"build_firm_target_matrix",
"build_local_candidate",
"build_local_candidate_from_dataset",
"attach_exposure",
"attach_soc_major_group",
"build_ai_exposure_table",
"build_complementarity_theta",
"build_complete_uk_geography_crosswalk",
"build_dsit_soc2010_to_soc2020",
"build_england_wales_crosswalk",
"build_firm_target_matrix",
"build_great_britain_crosswalk",
"build_local_candidate",
"build_local_candidate_from_dataset",
"build_major_group_ai_exposure",
"build_metric_tables_from_dataset",
"build_northern_ireland_crosswalk",
"build_official_uk_geography_crosswalk",
"build_scenario_grid",
"build_scotland_crosswalk",
"build_stacked_local_matrix",
"build_us_measure_chain",
"clone_entity_frame",
"clone_uk_dataset_tables_with_rowwise_geography",
"clone_uk_dataset_with_rowwise_geography",
"compute_household_metrics",
"create_uk_spi_support_tables",
"decile_deltas",
"employment_band_name",
"exposure_for_major_group",
"exposure_for_soc",
"exposure_from_major_group",
"exposure_imputation_stage",
"fill_support_channel_from_source",
"fit_exposure_imputer",
"frs_major_group_to_digit",
"frs_occupation_stage",
"generate_base_firms",
"generate_input_values",
"generate_uk_firm_population",
"geography_coverage_summary",
"gini",
"hmrc_band_name",
"id_multiplier_for_values",
"impute_exposure",
"infer_ni_dz_constituencies_from_postcodes",
"join_uk_oa_ladder_layers",
"load_ai_exposure_table",
"load_england_lad_region_lookup",
"load_england_wales_oa_constituencies",
"load_england_wales_oa_hierarchy",
"load_england_wales_oa_households",
"load_england_wales_oa_population",
"load_england_wales_oa_ward_lookup",
"load_ew_oa_lad23_lookup",
"load_frs_adult_table",
"load_lad_itl_lookup",
"load_major_group_ai_exposure_table",
"load_metric_tables",
"load_ni_dz_hierarchy",
"load_ni_dz_population",
"load_scotland_oa_constituencies",
"load_scotland_oa_dz_iz_lookup",
"load_scotland_oa_lau_lookup",
"load_scotland_oa_population",
"load_uk_dataset",
"load_uk_oa_ladder",
"load_uk_postcode_constituency_lookup",
"load_uk_postcode_oa_lookup",
"load_uk_dataset",
"map_to_hmrc_band_indices",
"metric_names",
"metric_names_from_target_profile",
"metric_tables_by_area_group",
"optimize_firm_weights",
"packaged_occupation_csv_path",
"prepare_area_frame",
"prepare_geography_crosswalk",
"prepare_household_frame",
"read_local_table",
"read_uk_firm_source_data",
"run_ai_shock_analysis",
"run_grid",
"run_scenario",
"set_simulation_area_group",
"soc_major_group_for_persons",
"solve_firm_weights",
"solve_stacked_local_weights",
"sort_households_by_id",
Expand All @@ -338,10 +476,12 @@
"uk_geography_ladder_assignment_summary",
"uk_geography_ladder_gate",
"update_england_wales_lad_codes",
"validate_geography_coverage",
"validate_uk_firm_population",
"validate_uk_rowwise_dataset_tables",
"validate_geography_coverage",
"write_geography_crosswalk",
"write_grid_csv",
"write_grid_json",
"write_local_candidate_outputs",
"write_long_geography_weights",
"write_uk_firm_population",
Expand Down
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