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Assign SNAP take-up from state participation rates #375

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70 changes: 62 additions & 8 deletions packages/populace-build/src/populace/build/us/source_stages.json
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Expand Up @@ -521,8 +521,8 @@
},
{
"stage": "snap_take_up",
"survey": "Census CPS ASEC + USDA FNS participation rate estimates",
"source": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/participation-rates",
"survey": "Census CPS ASEC + USDA FNS FY2022 state participation rate estimates",
"source": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022",
"grain": "spm_unit",
"artifacts": [
{
Expand All @@ -534,8 +534,8 @@
{
"kind": "administrative_table",
"format": "published_estimate",
"vintage": "latest_available",
"locator": "USDA FNS SNAP participation-rate estimates (Reaching Those in Need)"
"vintage": "fiscal_year_2022",
"locator": "USDA FNS Reaching Those in Need: Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates in 2022, Table 1"
}
],
"operations": [
Expand All @@ -546,16 +546,70 @@
{
"kind": "derive_snap_take_up",
"seed_from_build_config": true,
"take_up_rate": {
"value": 0.82,
"source": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/participation-rates"
"state_take_up_rates": {
"fiscal_year": 2022,
"measure": "share_of_eligible_people_participating_in_average_month",
"source": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/ear-snap-Reaching-Those-in-Need-2022.pdf",
"values": {
"01": 0.9,
"02": 0.73,
"04": 0.77,
"05": 0.59,
"06": 0.81,
"08": 1.0,
"09": 0.98,
"10": 0.91,
"11": 1.0,
"12": 0.81,
"13": 0.92,
"15": 0.81,
"16": 0.73,
"17": 1.0,
"18": 0.89,
"19": 0.98,
"20": 0.79,
"21": 0.75,
"22": 0.99,
"23": 0.94,
"24": 0.85,
"25": 1.0,
"26": 1.0,
"27": 0.93,
"28": 0.74,
"29": 0.92,
"30": 0.75,
"31": 0.93,
"32": 0.98,
"33": 0.82,
"34": 0.91,
"35": 1.0,
"36": 0.91,
"37": 0.95,
"38": 0.81,
"39": 0.99,
"40": 0.98,
"41": 1.0,
"42": 1.0,
"44": 1.0,
"45": 0.76,
"46": 0.84,
"47": 0.84,
"48": 0.74,
"49": 0.76,
"50": 0.99,
"51": 0.83,
"53": 1.0,
"54": 0.98,
"55": 1.0,
"56": 0.63
}
}
}
],
"outputs": [
"takes_up_snap_if_eligible"
],
"notes": "Reported recipients (SPM_SNAPSUB > 0) always take up \u2014 survey measurement first. Non-reporting units receive seeded draws at exactly the rate needed for the overall weighted take-up share to land on the cited FNS participation rate; when reporters alone exceed the rate the share is emergent. The flag is assigned across all SPM units and the engine intersects it with modeled eligibility, matching the retired enhanced-CPS pipeline. Draws are keyed by stable source identity so support-channel clones of one source unit always agree. Without this stage the engine defaults every unit to take-up (100% participation), overstating the reach of eligibility-side reforms (populace #243)."
"notes": "Reported recipients (SPM_SNAPSUB > 0) always take up \u2014 survey measurement first. In each state, eligible non-reporting SPM units are ordered by stable source-identity draw and topped up until weighted eligible people (household design weight times modeled snap_unit_size) are closest to the cited FY2022 FNS eligible-person participation rate; when eligible reporters alone exceed the target, the anchor is the floor. The calibrated state draw cutoff also applies to currently ineligible units, so eligibility-expanding reforms expose a plausible state-specific propensity instead of a hard-coded zero. Stable-draw ties are selected together so support-channel clones agree. FNS publishes rounded estimates and caps reported estimates at 100 percent; a reported 100 does not literally establish universal participation. Without this stage the engine defaults every unit to take-up, and the former national top-up preserved CPS state under-reporting (populace #243/#372)."
},
{
"stage": "eligibility_inputs",
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6 changes: 3 additions & 3 deletions packages/populace-build/src/populace/build/us/take_up_contract.json
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Expand Up @@ -22,9 +22,9 @@
"value_type": "bool",
"default": true,
"populace_treatment": "out_of_scope",
"scope_owner": "snap_take_up source stage (populace#243, landed in PR #294)",
"rate": {"value": 0.82, "source": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/participation-rates", "agency": "USDA FNS", "status": "sourced_administrative"},
"notes": "SNAP take-up is seeded by the snap_take_up source stage, reported-receipt-anchored on raw ASEC SPM_SNAPSUB and gated by snap_take_up_signal. Not seeded here to avoid duplicating that work; out_of_scope means out of scope for this module's Bernoulli seeding, not unseeded."
"scope_owner": "snap_take_up source stage (populace#243/#372)",
"rate": {"grain": "state", "period": "FY2022", "manifest_parameter": "state_take_up_rates", "measure": "share_of_eligible_people_participating_in_average_month", "source": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/ear-snap-Reaching-Those-in-Need-2022.pdf", "agency": "USDA FNS", "status": "sourced_administrative"},
"notes": "SNAP take-up is seeded by the snap_take_up source stage, reported-receipt-anchored on raw ASEC SPM_SNAPSUB, calibrated at state grain to FNS eligible-person participation rates, and gated by snap_take_up_signal. The state values live once in source_stages.json. Not seeded in the generic Bernoulli module to avoid duplicating that work; out_of_scope means out of scope for that module, not unseeded."
},
{
"variable": "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible",
Expand Down
20 changes: 15 additions & 5 deletions packages/populace-build/src/populace/build/us_runtime/__init__.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -247,10 +247,14 @@
with_us_snap_discretionary_exemption_inputs,
)
from populace.build.us_runtime.snap_take_up import (
US_SNAP_TAKE_UP_ELIGIBILITY_COLUMN,
US_SNAP_TAKE_UP_OUTPUT_COLUMN,
US_SNAP_TAKE_UP_RAW_COLUMN,
US_SNAP_TAKE_UP_STAGE_NAME,
US_SNAP_TAKE_UP_TOLERANCE,
US_SNAP_TAKE_UP_UNIT_SIZE_COLUMN,
derive_us_snap_take_up_from_manifest,
us_snap_take_up_diagnostics,
us_snap_take_up_signal_gate,
us_snap_take_up_stage_spec,
us_snap_take_up_summary,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -364,10 +368,14 @@
"us_hours_worked_stage_spec",
"us_hours_worked_summary",
"with_us_hours_worked_inputs",
"US_SNAP_TAKE_UP_ELIGIBILITY_COLUMN",
"US_SNAP_TAKE_UP_OUTPUT_COLUMN",
"US_SNAP_TAKE_UP_RAW_COLUMN",
"US_SNAP_TAKE_UP_STAGE_NAME",
"US_SNAP_TAKE_UP_TOLERANCE",
"US_SNAP_TAKE_UP_UNIT_SIZE_COLUMN",
"derive_us_snap_take_up_from_manifest",
"us_snap_take_up_diagnostics",
"us_snap_take_up_signal_gate",
"us_snap_take_up_stage_spec",
"us_snap_take_up_summary",
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -649,13 +657,15 @@ def to_manifest(self) -> dict[str, object]:
),
),
US_SNAP_TAKE_UP_STAGE_NAME: DonorSpec(
survey="Census CPS ASEC + USDA FNS participation rate estimates",
source="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/participation-rates",
survey=("Census CPS ASEC + USDA FNS FY2022 state participation rate estimates"),
source=(
"https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022"
),
notes=(
"SNAP take-up: reported recipients (SPM_SNAPSUB) always take "
"up; non-reporting units drawn to the cited FNS participation "
"rate. Without it the engine defaults every eligible unit to "
"100% take-up."
"up; non-reporting units are calibrated by state to cited FNS "
"eligible-person participation rates. Without it the engine "
"defaults every eligible unit to 100% take-up."
),
),
US_ELIGIBILITY_INPUTS_STAGE_NAME: DonorSpec(
Expand Down
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