Batch pre-export terminal gates into one report per run

packages/populace-build/src/populace/build/us/release_input_coverage_manifest.json

@@ -786,7 +786,7 @@
    ],
    "budget_measure": "qualified_business_income_deduction",
    "effect_direction": "baseline_minus_reform",
-   "expected_sign": "negative",
+   "expected_sign": "either",
    "id": "qbi_farm_operations_income_exclusion",
    "issue": "PolicyEngine/populace#298",
    "min_abs_effect": 1000000.0,
@@ -803,7 +803,7 @@
     }
    },
    "period": 2026,
-   "reason": "Removing only farm_operations_income from the 2026 Section 199A income definition isolates the restored signed Schedule F leaf. The real staged candidate is loss-heavy, so excluding it raises QBID and baseline-minus-reform is negative (-$4.16M). Without farm_operations_income the reform is a structural zero."
+   "reason": "Removing only farm_operations_income from the 2026 Section 199A income definition isolates the restored Schedule F leaf. The leaf is signed and two-channel: the ASEC channel carries the measured FRSE farm self-employment values (net-positive in the pooled frame) and the PUF channel carries the donor-pinned signed Schedule F values (net-negative, loss-heavy, populace#435), so the aggregate QBID effect direction is a property of the frame mix and the solve, not of coverage. The probe therefore requires a binding effect of at least the floor in either direction; a structural zero still fails."
   },
   {
    "binding_inputs": [

packages/populace-build/src/populace/build/us_runtime/reform_coverage_smoke.py

@@ -110,7 +110,16 @@ def us_reform_coverage_smoke_gate(
             effect = baseline_total - reform_total
         else:
             effect = reform_total - baseline_total
-        signed_magnitude = effect if probe.expected_sign == "positive" else -effect
+        # "either" proves BINDING without a directional claim: the probe
+        # passes when the reform moves the measure by the floor in either
+        # direction. For a signed, two-channel input (measured ASEC leg plus
+        # donor-pinned PUF leg, e.g. farm_operations_income) the aggregate
+        # sign is a property of the frame mix, not of coverage — pinning a
+        # direction rots when the frame's honest composition changes.
+        if probe.expected_sign == "either":
+            signed_magnitude = abs(effect)
+        else:
+            signed_magnitude = effect if probe.expected_sign == "positive" else -effect
         passed = signed_magnitude >= probe.min_abs_effect
         results[probe.id] = {
             "name": probe.name,
@@ -126,10 +135,15 @@ def us_reform_coverage_smoke_gate(
             "passed": passed,
         }
         if not passed:
+            expectation = (
+                "an effect in either direction"
+                if probe.expected_sign == "either"
+                else f"a {probe.expected_sign} effect"
+            )
             failures.append(
                 f"{probe.id}: '{probe.name}' scores {effect:+,.0f} on "
-                f"{probe.budget_measure} for {probe_period}; expected a "
-                f"{probe.expected_sign} effect with magnitude at least "
+                f"{probe.budget_measure} for {probe_period}; expected "
+                f"{expectation} with magnitude at least "
                 f"${probe.min_abs_effect:,.0f}. The reform did not bind as "
                 "declared, so its input leaves "
                 f"{list(probe.binding_inputs)} are absent or degenerate on the "

packages/populace-build/src/populace/build/us_runtime/release_input_coverage.py

@@ -317,9 +317,9 @@ def __post_init__(self) -> None:
             raise ValueError(f"{self.id}: min_abs_effect must be positive.")
         if self.period is not None and self.period < 1990:
             raise ValueError(f"{self.id}: period must be a plausible year.")
-        if self.expected_sign not in {"positive", "negative"}:
+        if self.expected_sign not in {"positive", "negative", "either"}:
             raise ValueError(
-                f"{self.id}: expected_sign must be 'positive' or 'negative'."
+                f"{self.id}: expected_sign must be 'positive', 'negative', or 'either'."
             )
 
 

packages/populace-build/tests/test_release_input_coverage.py

@@ -468,6 +468,61 @@ def test_negative_overtime_effect_passes_and_wrong_sign_fails(
         assert not wrong_sign.passed
         assert "expected a negative effect" in wrong_sign.failures[0]
 
+    def test_either_sign_probe_passes_both_directions_and_keeps_floor_teeth(
+        self, monkeypatch
+    ) -> None:
+        # A signed, two-channel input (e.g. farm_operations_income: measured
+        # ASEC leg plus donor-pinned PUF leg) proves COVERAGE by moving the
+        # measure at all — the aggregate direction is a property of the frame
+        # mix, not of coverage. "either" accepts the floor in both directions
+        # while a structural (sub-floor) effect still fails.
+        monkeypatch.setattr(smoke_module, "_build_reform", lambda changes: "REFORM")
+        probe = ReformCoverageProbe(
+            id="either_probe",
+            name="Signed two-channel leaf exclusion",
+            parameter_changes={"gov.example.switch": {"2026-01-01.2026-12-31": 0}},
+            budget_measure="income_tax",
+            binding_inputs=("farm_operations_income",),
+            min_abs_effect=1_000_000.0,
+            reason="The exclusion binds through a signed leaf.",
+            issue="PolicyEngine/populace#298",
+            effect_direction="baseline_minus_reform",
+            expected_sign="either",
+        )
+
+        positive = us_reform_coverage_smoke_gate(
+            simulate=lambda reform: _Sim(9.0e9 if reform else 10.0e9),
+            probes=[probe],
+        )
+        assert positive.passed
+
+        negative = us_reform_coverage_smoke_gate(
+            simulate=lambda reform: _Sim(11.0e9 if reform else 10.0e9),
+            probes=[probe],
+        )
+        assert negative.passed
+
+        structural_zero = us_reform_coverage_smoke_gate(
+            simulate=lambda reform: _Sim(10.0e9 + (1.0e5 if reform else 0.0)),
+            probes=[probe],
+        )
+        assert not structural_zero.passed
+        assert "an effect in either direction" in structural_zero.failures[0]
+
+    def test_probe_rejects_unknown_expected_sign(self) -> None:
+        with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="expected_sign must be"):
+            ReformCoverageProbe(
+                id="bad_sign",
+                name="Bad sign",
+                parameter_changes={"gov.example.switch": {"2026": 0}},
+                budget_measure="income_tax",
+                binding_inputs=("x",),
+                min_abs_effect=1.0,
+                reason="r.",
+                issue="PolicyEngine/populace#1",
+                expected_sign="sideways",
+            )
+
     def test_negative_auto_loan_effect_passes_and_wrong_sign_fails(
         self, monkeypatch
     ) -> None:
@@ -1089,9 +1144,12 @@ def test_shipped_farm_probes_each_remove_only_the_bound_qbi_leaf(self) -> None:
             "estate_income",
         }
         cases = {
+            # "either": the leaf is signed and two-channel (measured ASEC FRSE
+            # plus donor-pinned PUF Schedule F, populace#435) — the aggregate
+            # QBID direction is a frame property, not a coverage property.
             "qbi_farm_operations_income_exclusion": (
                 "farm_operations_income",
-                "negative",
+                "either",
             ),
             "qbi_farm_rent_income_exclusion": ("farm_rent_income", "positive"),
         }

packages/populace-build/tests/test_us_fiscal_refresh_builder.py

@@ -3506,7 +3506,10 @@ def fake_reconcile(frame, initial_result, specs, **kwargs):
     try:
         builder.main()
     except RuntimeError as exc:
-        assert str(exc) == "Release gates failed: ctc failed"
+        # The batched pre-write report leads with the calibration battery
+        # failure; degraded-mode coverage/parity evaluation errors on the
+        # fake frame may append further lines after it.
+        assert str(exc).startswith("Release gates failed: ctc failed")
     else:  # pragma: no cover - defensive assertion
         raise AssertionError("Expected post-calibration gate failure.")