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Carry the SSI reconcile per-pass trajectory through raise and record (#447)#448

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ssi-reconcile-pass-telemetry
Jul 17, 2026
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Carry the SSI reconcile per-pass trajectory through raise and record (#447)#448
MaxGhenis merged 1 commit into
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ssi-reconcile-pass-telemetry

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Part of #447 (instrumentation step — the adjudication itself follows the dense rerun).

Why

The dense arm's SSI reconcile failed the #431 runaway cap after 3 passes (delta 749,467 vs cap 658,513 — 11.4% vs 10%) and left no evidence but the final line: the raise fires before any diagnostics artifact is written, so the pass-by-pass trajectory is unknowable post-hoc. Converging-but-over-cap (cap mis-sized for the dense frame's equilibrium — the #431 adjudication pattern) and oscillating/diverging (real defect) demand opposite remedies.

What

  • pass_history records each pass's national_swap_delta / national_swap_sanity_cap / within_bound.
  • It rides the success reconciliation record (ssi_take_up_reconciliation.pass_history) and the terminal raise message (… Pass trajectory: pass 1: delta=… cap=… within_bound=…; pass 2: …), so a failed run's log alone carries the adjudication evidence.
  • No gate behavior changes — same cap, same raise condition, evidence only.

Tests

Both existing reconcile tests extended, each failing without the instrumentation: the fail-closed test asserts the trajectory in the raise message; the fresh-pair test asserts pass_history in the reconciliation record. Full builder suite green.

Next per #447: rerun the dense arm (warm checkpoint) with this in place, read the trajectory, then adjudicate cap-vs-defect.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

…e and record

populace#447: the Build M dense arm failed the #431 runaway cap after 3
passes (delta 749,467 vs cap 658,513, 11.4% vs 10%), and nothing
survived the raise except the final line - no artifacts, no per-pass
deltas. Converging-but-over-cap (cap mis-sized for the dense frame's
equilibrium) and oscillating/diverging (real defect) demand opposite
remedies, and the trajectory is the only way to tell them apart.

Record each pass's national_swap_delta / sanity cap / within_bound in a
pass_history that rides BOTH the success reconciliation record and the
terminal RuntimeError message ("Pass trajectory: pass 1: delta=... cap=...
within_bound=...; pass 2: ..."), so a failed run's log carries the
adjudication evidence. No gate behavior changes - same cap, same raise
condition.

Both reconcile tests extended and fail without the instrumentation:
the fail-closed test asserts the trajectory in the raise message, the
fresh-pair test asserts pass_history in the reconciliation record.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis merged commit af02c91 into main Jul 17, 2026
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MaxGhenis deleted the ssi-reconcile-pass-telemetry branch July 17, 2026 07:59
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Jul 18, 2026
…ation) (#452)

Fixes populace#447.

The #431 cap (0.10 x fresh national) was sized on sparse behavior:
measured sparse deltas run 7.1-8.0% across attempts 9-16. The dense
arm's #448-instrumented trajectory (af02c91, full pool) converges
monotonically 11.97% -> 11.64% -> 11.38% with decelerating decrements
(asymptote ~10.6%) - not a runaway, but structurally above 0.10 on the
same #424-undercounted candidate universe, and unreachable by more
passes alone.

Per the maintainer's adjudication: the dense arm gates at 0.12 x fresh
national; sparse keeps 0.10. The delta and the ratio used are recorded
in the reconciliation payload, the pass trajectory rides both the
success record and the terminal raise (#448), and both caps converge
back to one number when #424 restores the candidate universe.

Tests: the fail-closed reconcile case recalibrated above BOTH ratios
(+1.1M ~ 14.9%, so the dense ratio cannot flip it); a new delta-level
test pins the measured dense equilibrium class (11.42%) as in-bound on
0.12 and out-of-bound on 0.10, with >12% still refused on dense.

Co-authored-by: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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